On the
thirty-first I was lunching at the Hotel Bristol with Mrs. Gerard
and Thomas H. Birch, our minister to Portugal, and his wife.
I left the table and went over and talked to Mouktar Pascha,
the Turkish Ambassador, who assured me that there was no danger
whatever of war. But in spite of his assurances and judging by
the situation and what I learned from other diplomats, I had
cabled to the State Department on the morning of that day saying
that a general European war was inevitable. On the thirty-first,
_Kriegsgefahrzustand_ or "condition of danger of war" was
proclaimed at seven P. M., and at seven P. M. the demand was made
by Germany that Russia should demobilise within twelve hours. On
the thirtieth, I had a talk with Baron Beyens, the Minister of
Belgium, and Jules Cambon, the French Ambassador, in the garden
of the French Embassy in the afternoon. They both agreed that
nothing could prevent war except the intervention of America.
Both Ambassador Cambon and Minister Beyens were very sad and
depressed. After leaving them I met Sir Edward Grey upon the
street and had a short conversation with him.
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